It’s finally here–the playoffs start today! Let’s preview the West’s first round and make some predictions.
(1) Lakers vs. (8) Blazers
The hottest team in the bubble faces off against perhaps the coldest. The Blazers come surging into the postseason after a remarkable 9-game rampage by Dame and co. The Lakers have looked somewhat off for the entire restart, and really don’t have the flamethrower-type scoring that Portland does; if these games turn into shootouts, that could spell trouble for LA. However, it remains true that Portland doesn’t defend especially well, and their best offensive lineup (Dame/CJ/Trent/Melo/Nurkić) is woefully thin on perimeter D. For as talented as Dame and CJ are, I’m not sure they can keep up quite this stratospheric level of play for another two weeks, playing every other day, after the grind they just finished a couple days ago. I like Lebron and AD to find their form against an exploitable defensive team and regain some momentum. Portland gives the Lakers a battle, but in the end, they just don’t have the horses needed to slow down the best pick n roll combo in the league.
Prediction: Lakers in 7
Player to watch for each team:
Lakers: Danny Green
Danny Green is an indispensible piece of the Lakers’ rotation, and he simply hasn’t looked good in the bubble up to this point. If the Lakers are to be serious finals contenders, he has to find his shot, and fast. I’d look for Frank Vogel to try and get him involved early in this series and see if he can get going. He’ll also most likely be one of the primary matchups on Dame, seeing as he’s arguably LA’s best perimeter defender. Huge series coming up for Green.
Portland: Carmelo Anthony
He’s been hitting clutch shots for the entire restart, but he also hasn’t been shooting very efficiently. The Blazers are excellent as finding the open guy when defenses try to trap Dame, and that open guy was often Melo in the corner, who was not making the defense pay often enough the past week. If he finds his form from beyond the arc, the Blazers become much tougher to stop offensively. Also worth nothing: it’s just the 2nd time in their 17-year careers that Lebron and Melo face off in the postseason.
(2) Clippers vs. (7) Mavericks
Two of the most explosive offensive teams in the league face off in one of the more exciting matchups of the first round. The Mavs bring what was statistically the best offense ever to this duel with Kawhi and the Clips. This is an extremely tough matchup for them, though, as the Clippers have several elite defenders to throw Luka’s way, and the Mavs just don’t have the same kind of talent on the defensive end to send at Kawhi and PG. The Clippers are also a team with tons of switchability on D, which could help eliminate Luka and the Mavs’ most dangerous weapon: the pick and roll. I cannot wait to finally watch Luka in the playoffs, and the Mavs figure to put a good fight, but the Clippers clearly have an edge here.
Prediction: Clippers in 6
Player to watch for each team:
Clippers: Montrezl Harrell
Harrell is arguably the Clippers’ most important player beyond Kawhi and PG, yet he hasn’t played an NBA game in almost half a year. He’ll be thrown back into the fire while most likely guarding Porzingis, who has about 6 inches on him. Harrell is the far stronger and more physical player though. It’ll be a fascinating matchup to look out for.
Mavericks: Kristaps Porzingis
Same reasons I just mentioned. If KP can get hot from deep and force Harrell to come out to the perimeter frequently, that could open up all kinds of PnR opportunities for Luka, and clear out space for him to go to work. That may be the Mavs’ best chance here.
(3) Nuggets vs. (6) Jazz
A classic offense vs. defense matchup, this is a battle of two vastly different squads. These two teams dueled in a double overtime thriller last week, perhaps a preview of a tight series to come. However, the loss of Mike Conley (returning home for the birth of his child) is a major one for Utah. Without him, they closely resemble the team from last year that made a first round exit, and I see little reason to feel the same outcome won’t happen this time around. There simply isn’t enough scoring around Donovan Mitchell to make them a hard team to guard, and the problem of deciding whether Gobert should close games persists. Jokić also won their individual matchup last week handily.
Prediction: Nuggets in 6
Player to watch for each team:
Nuggets: Michael Porter Jr.
Were the last two weeks a hot shooting streak or the beginning of his ascension to all-star status? I’m taking door #2. If Porter becomes a legitimate go-to scorer, the Nuggets are as dangerous as any team in the league. How he handles his first taste of playoff action, against a great defensive team in Utah, should be a good litmus test.
Jazz: Jordan Clarkson
Clarkson has been a great addition to this Jazz squad, providing them with that elusive bench scoring since his arrival. However, without Conley, he becomes even more important to this team. It won’t be sufficient for him to simply be the sparkplug scorer off the bench, he’ll have to provide a reliable 15-20 points a night, and may be closing games as well. Last time he was in the playoffs (with Cleveland in 2018), he was basically unplayable, but he looks like a different player these days.
(4) Thunder vs. (5) Rockets
Two champions of small ball go head to head in this duel of point guards against their former teams. It’s a brutal matchup for the Thunder though, who are statistically a bad three point shooting team, and run into the best one in the league. It’s also a bad matchup for Steven Adams, who I don’t think will be playable in crunch time against the Rockets, and the Thunder really don’t have any small ball-type bigs, converse to the Rockets, who have several. All that leads me to believe the Rockets will take this series somewhat easily. However, Westbrook’s injury (right quad strain) obviously changes the equation, and Mike D’antoni said the other day that he isn’t sure when his point guard will be back. That forces the Rockets to make big changes to the way they attack offensively, and Eric Gordon should be relied upon heavily in his return from injury. In the end, I think Harden can pull this one out basically on his own with the amount of shooting that surrounds him without Westbrook, but it’ll be tough.
The prediction: Rockets in 7
Player to watch for each team:
Thunder: Danilo Gallinari
The Thunder are at a massive shooting disadvantage in this series. Gallo, their best perimeter weapon, has to be locked in to give OKC a shot.
Rockets: Eric Gordon
Despite recently returning from injury, Gordon figures to be heavily involved offensively for Houston until Westbrook returns. He’s struggled with his shot all year, and it’ll be trial by fire for him, as he’ll have to find his rhythm fast against a tough OKC team.